🎯 Quickfire Recap – £11 EW Yankee at Carlisle (23 March 2025)

Stake: £11 (22 x £0.50 EW bets)

Potential Returns: £15,105.28
Actual Returns: Modest place return from 1 runner

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🏇 Selections Recap:

1️⃣ 14:45 – Treaty Boy (11/2)
➡️ Ran prominently, folded tamely after 3 out
❌ Finished 8th – unplaced
🧠 Step up to Class 2 exposed limitations

2️⃣ 15:20 – Uptown Harry (11/1)
➡️ Led early, weakened late
❌ Finished 6th – just missed out (paid 5 places)
🧠 Stamina faded when it mattered – others stayed better

3️⃣ 15:55 – Ganapathi (16/1)
✅ 2nd – strong each-way return
🎯 Held up, moved through stylishly, stayed on well
🧠 Perfect profile: class drop, solid LTO form, trainer in form

4️⃣ 17:05 – Mullins Cross (22/1)
➡️ Always rear, never involved
❌ Finished 7th – unplaced
🧠 Speculative pick with no recent promise – lesson learned

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🧠 Key Takeaways:

• ✅ Ganapathi (16/1) salvaged the bet with a big-priced place

• ❌ Uptown Harry just missed the places – an unlucky near-miss

• 📉 Treaty Boy & Mullins Cross showed the risks of speculative or stretched profiles

• 🔍 Future Focus: Must sharpen stamina analysis in staying races and avoid 20/1+ picks without strong supporting signals

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🔧 System Updates Applied:

• Stronger filters for 3m+ races: trip suitability > recent visual form

• 20/1+ picks now need a clear trigger (headgear, trip/class drop, positive trainer angle)

• Promote class-dropping winners returning to 0–100 handicaps (Tread Softly Now-type)

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💬 Final Word:

“Today’s Yankee uncovered a gem in Ganapathi and highlighted the need for deeper stamina checks and stricter outsider filters. One place return from four, but plenty of fuel for system refinement. Onward to the next battle.”