🎯 £10.00 EW Trixie Review – Southwell (2 April 2025)

Total Stake: £10.00 (8x £1.25)

Potential Return: £4,146.62
Outcome: ❌❌✅ (1 Placed, 2 Unplaced)

🏇 The Selections

🟥 Everyoneknowsadave @ 17.00 (16:55 Southwell) – Lost

A speculative pick based on strong C&D form and a stable switch bounce angle. However, he never landed a blow in a deeper field and lacked the tactical speed to get involved.
🔎 System Note: Class rise and lack of mid-race positioning cost him — these types need to show sharper sectionals when climbing the ladder.

🟩 Create @ 13.00 (17:30 Southwell) – Placed

A gutsy effort from a horse who looked well treated on old form. Held his position, stayed on to grab 4th, and landed the each-way money.
🔎 System Win: Spot-on logic — old C&D winner, good draw, and value price in a wide-open low-grade handicap.

🟥 Lequinto @ 12.00 (19:00 Southwell) – Lost

Held up too far back in a race dominated by pace. Showed signs of life turning in but faded late after hanging left.
🔎 System Note: Tactical misfire — in small fields, the system must now upgrade pace/draw scenarios and penalize closers without serious late-sectionals.

📈 What Did We Learn?

✅ The Create play was textbook Extra Place thinking — revived profile, price support, and track logic.
❌ The other two exposed key refinement areas:

  • 3yo Handicap Class Rises: Like Everyoneknowsadave, selections jumping class off a single win must show more than just C&D form.

  • Race Shape Analysis: As Lequinto showed, pace and draw in small-field AW sprints are critical — closers need very strong finish indicators to be viable.

🔧 Strategy Refinement Logged:

From this trixie, we updated the following system rules in the Consolidated Strategy & Lessons Main File:

  • “In small-field AW sprints (≤10 runners), upgrade front-runners and downgrade closers unless clear signs of finishing strength or sectional speed are present.”

  • “Do not rely solely on C&D form when rising in class — must also show evidence of turn-of-foot or upward profile.”​Consolidated Strategy &…

✅ Final Takeaway

Result: -£10.00 loss, but strategic validation via Create.
Verdict: Solid system play marred by one misread and one overreach — valuable lessons banked.
We’re always refining. The long game wins.

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